Populations in the Central African Republic are at risk of possible atrocity crimes due to ongoing violence by armed groups and government and allied forces.

BACKGROUND:

During December 2020 a loose alliance of predatory armed groups, known as the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), launched a violent offensive against the government of the Central African Republic (CAR). For more than three years the CPC and other armed groups have perpetrated violent attacks, committing International Humanitarian Law (IHL) violations, including killing and abducting civilians, the forcible recruitment of children and attacks on civilian infrastructure, humanitarian workers and the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSCA). The Central African Armed Forces (FACA) – working closely with Russian security partners, including mercenary fighters from the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) – have responded with counteroffensives, forcing armed groups to withdraw from major cities.

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that two CPC-affiliated armed groups, including the Union for Peace in CAR (UPC), have perpetrated systematic and widespread conflict-related sexual violence, including rape, gang rape and sexual slavery. Some armed groups frequently use or lay landmines and explosive ordnance, resulting in civilian harm and hindering aid delivery.

The UN has also documented abuses and violations by FACA and mercenaries that may amount to war crimes, including summary executions, arbitrary killings, torture, rape and forced disappearances. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, Russian mercenaries have reportedly killed over 900 civilians, making them the armed actor that has killed the most civilians in CAR since December 2020.

During March 2023 the Azande Ani Kpi Gbe (AAKG), a predominantly ethnic Azande armed group, emerged in Haut-Mbomou. The AAKG has sporadically clashed with the UPC, a predominantly Fulani armed group and forcibly recruited Azande youth and targeted Fulani and Muslim communities with threats and abductions. Ethnic and religious minorities have also been disproportionately targeted – including attacks, ill-treatment, illegal arrests and detentions – in operations by FACA troops and Russian mercenaries. OHCHR has previously implicated proxy forces – who were recruited, trained and armed by FACA and mercenaries – in incidents targeting and punishing Muslim and Fulani communities that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. The police have also arbitrarily arrested, illegally detained and tortured members of the Fulani community.

Government institutions have cracked down on human rights defenders, independent media and the opposition in recent years. Throughout 2024 several judicial cases against opposition political figures have fueled persistent tensions ahead of a key electoral period. In August CAR authorities announced the postponement of local elections, initially scheduled for October, to April 2025. Some in civil society and the opposition have accused President Faustin-Archange Touadéra of attempting to consolidate power.

The protracted crisis in CAR has its origins in the overthrow of President François Bozizé during March 2013 by the mainly Muslim Séléka rebel alliance. Abuses by the Séléka led to the formation of predominantly Christian anti-balaka militias and the collapse of state institutions. Anti-balaka and ex-Séléka forces may have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity between 2013-2015. Although a 2019 peace deal formally ended the conflict, armed groups continued to engage in sporadic violence.

Trials are ongoing at the International Criminal Court for former anti-balaka leaders and a Séléka leader. The Special Criminal Court (SCC) in CAR has charged at least 45 people with war crimes and/or crimes against humanity. In April the SCC publicly issued an arrest warrant against Bozizé – who is now living in Guinea Bissau – on multiple counts of crimes against humanity committed during his presidency. During June the SCC announced the arrest of former anti-balaka leader Edmond Beïna, who is charged with crimes against humanity and war crimes allegedly committed in February and March 2014.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Armed group activity and routine IHL violations and human rights abuses continue, particularly in remote border areas, mining sites and transhumance corridors. From 15 February to 18 June the UN Secretary-General documented an increase in the number of victims of human rights violations, including of grave violations against children and conflict-related sexual violence.

The UN Security Council (UNSC)-mandated Panel of Experts (PoE) has warned of a spillover effect of the conflict in neighboring Sudan into northern CAR. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are crossing the border to use CAR territory as a logistical hub and recruit fighters from armed groups, while the Sudanese Armed Forces have launched air raids along the border. The PoE also alerted about heightened tensions between local communities and Sudanese refugees, with armed groups infiltrating refugee camps and engaging in forced recruitment, use of child soldiers and attacks based on religious and ethnic grounds.

In southeast CAR, the AAKG and UPC have launched renewed attacks in Haut-Mbomou since February, targeting civilians along ethnic and religious lines and resulting in dozens killed or injured. MINUSCA has deployed peacekeepers to protect civilians. Meanwhile, AAKG fighters, trained by Africa Corps, were integrated into the FACA during May and are conducting joint operations against the UPC. Search operations have targeted Fulani civilians within displacement camps.

On 30 July the UNSC lifted the arms embargo imposed on CAR since 2013, while extending all other targeted sanctions measures against armed groups and associated individuals until 31 July 2025. Member states must continue to prevent arms sales to such actors, including those that commit or plan attacks which undermine peace efforts or violate IHL.

After a CPC leader expressed willingness to end hostilities, on 14 August the government and an armed group representative met in Bangui for disarmament talks. Despite this, other leaders within the Coalition pursued their own interests, launching several attacks throughout August and killing more than a dozen civilians.

ANALYSIS:

The security situation remains precarious in certain areas amid heightened inter-communal tensions and recurrent attacks on civilians. Although the CPC has weakened and become fragmented over time, combatants continue to pose a threat to civilians.

The targeting of ethnic and religious communities and hate speech heighten atrocity risks and may trigger further violence along communal, religious and ethnic lines. Continued attacks by the UPC and AAKG, as well as the integration of AAKG fighters into the FACA, risks further inflaming tensions and raises critical human rights and accountability concerns given the AAKG’s alleged commission of IHL violations.

CAR has a history of widespread impunity that has fueled cycles of armed conflict and atrocities. While there are several mechanisms mandated to deal with international crimes perpetrated in CAR, accountability remains limited with few alleged perpetrators having been arrested, prosecuted or tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity since 2013.

The cross-border flow of foreign fighters, arms and natural resources contributes to a thriving conflict-economy. Wagner operatives, who have a record of alleged abuses in conflict zones around the world, have committed human rights abuses and targeted civilians as they increase their control of mining areas.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Ongoing security crisis caused by, among other factors, defection from a peace agreement, lack of commitment to a ceasefire and armed activity.
  • Acts of violence against vulnerable populations, particularly women and children.
  • Escalating violence on the basis of ethnicity and religion, increasing likelihood of retaliatory attacks.
  • Training and use of abusive armed groups as proxies, as well as incursion of foreign fighters.
  • Repressive measures to close civic space and suppress dissent, resulting in a climate of fear ahead of local and presidential elections in 2025.

NECESSARY ACTION:

All armed actors must adhere to their obligations under IHL and International Human Rights Law. CAR authorities must instruct FACA to cease collusion or cooperation with armed groups. CAR authorities must guarantee the independence of institutions, respect freedom of peaceful assembly and association, strengthen and protect civic space and counter incitement to violence, particularly ahead of the elections.

Provincial and local authorities, in coordination with civil society, should implement community-based atrocity prevention and response strategies to address and mitigate inter-communal tensions, as well as transhumance-related violence.

All perpetrators of atrocities in CAR should be held legally accountable, regardless of their political status, rank, affiliation or nationality. All suspects subject to SCC arrest warrants should be taken into custody. The international community should ensure that the SCC has sufficient resources to carry out its mandate.