Populations across Ethiopia, particularly in the Amhara and Oromia regions, continue to be at risk due to clashes between armed groups and government forces, as well as inter-communal violence. Populations in the Tigray region continue to endure war crimes and crimes against humanity despite a peace agreement.

BACKGROUND:

Long-standing grievances and recurrent human rights abuses by government forces and armed groups in Ethiopia have caused multiple conflicts to flare since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power in 2018. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed, particularly in the Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions, and 4.5 million people have been displaced. Inter-communal and inter-religious violence, as well as regional border disputes, also continue. Conflict and climate factors have driven a massive humanitarian crisis, leaving 21 million people in need of assistance.

Since 2018 conflict between Oromia regional security forces, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) armed group have killed thousands of civilians, with parties perpetrating what may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Government forces continue to commit enforced disappearances and attacks on civilians, including through repeated air and drone strikes and extrajudicial executions of perceived OLA supporters. The OLA, which seeks autonomy for ethnic Oromos, has targeted ethnic Amharas living in Oromia and border areas. The federal government and OLA held two rounds of peace talks in 2023 without resolution.

From November 2020 – 2022 the ENDF and its allies, including the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), fought in an armed conflict with the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). The fighting began in the Tigray region and subsequently spread to neighboring Afar and Amhara regions in July 2021. War crimes and/or crimes against humanity were committed by all parties to the conflict, with several UN bodies, including the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE), and international human rights groups documenting indiscriminate bombings, ethnic-based killings, forced displacement, destruction of cultural heritage and systematic destruction of food, water and health infrastructure. According to Refugees International, between 40 to 50 percent of women and girls in Tigray experienced sexual violence during the conflict, with 80 percent of victims reporting rape and/or gang rape by armed groups. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch found that Amhara regional forces and militia, including the Fano, an ethnic Amhara militia, and the EDF were responsible for the ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans from Western Tigray, with ENDF complicity.

Despite the signing of a cessation of hostilities agreement (CoHA) on 2 November 2022 between the federal government and the regional governing Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), abuses by the EDF and Fano have continued in Tigray, including sexual violence and extrajudicial killings of civilians. The ICHREE’s warnings of an imminent risk of atrocity crimes went unheeded when the UN Human Rights Council failed to renew the Commission’s mandate in October 2023.

In April 2023 the federal government announced plans to integrate regional militia forces into the federal army and police, prompting fears of a loss of regional autonomy and vulnerability to attacks by armed groups. Protests against the measure in Amhara led to intense clashes between the Fano and ENDF. The UN and international human rights groups have documented arbitrary arrests and drone strikes targeting civilian areas by both parties to the conflict, while ENDF forces have killed civilians during searches for Fano members and systematically targeted health facilities, workers and patients.

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) released a report in December 2023 based on community consultations, encouraging the federal government to implement multiple tracks of transitional justice. In April Ethiopia’s Council of Ministers approved a Transitional Justice Policy followed by a roadmap for its implementation.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Intense fighting continues in Amhara, with security forces killing dozens in Central Gondar, East Gojam, North Shewa and West Gojam zones. Fano forces have also attacked Oromo communities in North Shewa along the regional border. Despite ongoing violence, a 24-25 June regional conference resulted in the formation of a 15-member Regional Peace Council to facilitate talks with the Fano.

Clashes are also ongoing in Oromia, including in East Wollega, West Shewa, North Shewa and Southwest Shewa, and OLA forces continue targeting large-scale economic hubs in the region. Civilians in the Kellem Wollega zone reported that the government has forcibly recruited residents to fight against the OLA.

On 10 July the African Union convened the second Strategic Reflection Meeting on the CoHA, during which the federal government and TPLF discussed the return of displaced persons and the phased execution of the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration process.

On 14 June OHCHR reported that government forces, EDF and myriad militias killed at least 1,351 civilians from January 2023 – January 2024. OHCHR also documented the killing of at least 248 civilians and destruction of civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, by drone strikes in Amhara and Oromia between 4 August and 31 December 2023.

ANALYSIS:

In Amhara and Oromia, civilians remain at risk of atrocities due to fighting between ethnic militias and the ENDF’s retaliation on local communities. Amharas in Oromia and Oromos in Amhara are vulnerable to attacks by ethnic-based militias. Identity-based killings may amount to crimes against humanity, while targeted attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure may amount to war crimes. Lack of good faith negotiations have entrenched grievances and at times increased abuses.

Populations in Tigray, Afar and Amhara also remain at risk of further war crimes and crimes against humanity due to violations of the CoHA. The unresolved question of the administration of Western Tigray and other disputed territories could reignite conflict, with both Amhara and Tigrayan ethnic groups claiming control over the land. Civilians in Tigray also remain at risk due to the continued presence of the EDF, which have been repeatedly accused of atrocities.

A history of impunity and lack of effective transitional justice for human rights abuses perpetrated under successive ruling parties has exacerbated these grievances. The non-renewal of the ICHREE incentivizes the federal government to further entrench impunity and undermines victims and survivors’ hopes for justice. Given ongoing conflicts, it is imperative to consolidate peace tracks before implementing transitional justice to allow all actors to participate in a holistic process.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Ongoing and unresolved tensions following conflict, threatening the fragile peace process.
  • Policy or practice of impunity for – or tolerance of – serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, atrocity crimes or their incitement.
  • Unresolved inter-communal tensions and the ENDF’s attacks on associated ethnic-based militias.
  • Inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or hate speech by political figures to capitalize on the politicization of ethnic identity.
  • Lack of trust and confidence in state institutions to resolve conflicts and implement transitional justice initiatives.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Government forces must conduct military operations in line with international law, sparing no effort to protect civilians, as well as ensuring transparent investigations into reported abuses. Armed groups must end the targeting of civilians.

While meaningful steps to implement the CoHA and enable the unfettered delivery of aid have been taken, the process must continue in good faith. The EDF should immediately withdraw from Ethiopia.

Due to the lack of confidence in domestic accountability measures, the international community should explore alternative options, including through universal jurisdiction. The federal government should work with UN Special Procedures and experts on transitional justice to ensure processes meet international standards.

The international community must maintain scrutiny of the crises in Ethiopia. Any normalization should be contingent on steps toward respecting human rights and assurances of inclusive, transparent and good faith accountability efforts.